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Very few will be shocked by the outcome of last night's results from the by-election in Crewe and Nantwich. Considering that this is the first such victory since 1982, things really are looking bad for Brownites.
The sorry fact of the matter, however, is that this by-election and the London mayoral elcections make it increasingly likely that we won't all be given a chance to boot out the incumbent until 2010; By that time, the 10p-tax row and other recent blunders that have led to historically low suport for the government, will be paling in the minds of the electorate.
And so, things may not be as bad as they seem for Brown. Although he may regret the announcement of some of the Queen's Speech in a frantic political panic which also saw the income tax threshold increase in the (previously described as impossible) rewriting of the budget, if his governemnt can demonstrate competence, sensibility and straight-forward policy for the period to the next election (whenever that may be) then they won't have that hard a time regaining the votes of the Londoners and Crewe and Nantwichers who, although embarrassed, did the unthinkable and voted Tory. If you don't believe me, watch the speech of Edward Timpson (the Tory candidate in Crewe) and consider whether that merits the 17.6% swing, and thus whether many of the marginal 7,860 votes may next time swing back to Labour.
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Posted by mikey1 on 2008-05-23 06:56:49 | Rating: | Views: 80
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