I enjoy reading and watching the news to find out what’s going on in the world.  Afterwards I then like to discuss the stories that I’ve seen reported with friends and family to find out their opinions.  Since I’m interested in the law I particularly enjoy discussions regarding court cases and other legal matters in the news.  During these conversations I’ve noted that there is a strong tendency amongst many people to make snap judgments.  After watching a TV news report that is only two minutes long they will often have already formed an opinion and will state their views with what sometimes seems to be unequivocal certainty.  For example, people will hear that a certain person has been accused of a crime and will immediately voice their opinions as to what punishment the individual should receive, without giving any thought to the possibility that the accusation may be unfounded.  This isn’t merely related to legal affairs either.  I have read that, when a patient visits a doctor for diagnosis of a medical condition, the physician will, on average, take about 18 seconds to come to his or her decision.  I’ve also read that doctors come to the wrong diagnosis 20% of the time and I can’t help but wonder if the speed of their decision making may be part of the cause.

In addition to coming to quick decisions I’ve also noticed that many people will get facts wrong.  Discussing a news story people will often repeat things that they thought they heard or saw reported in the media but which, in fact, cannot be found in the actual news reports.  Often the misinformation is based on something that is factual but it has been exaggerated or distorted in some way.  On one occasion I was told that a person had been charged with a crime but, when I searched the available media sources, I learned that he was merely under investigation, not charged.

If one needs a further illustration of how people can get facts wrong simply look at the children’s game “Telephone”.  In this game one lines up a number of participants.  Someone whispers a sentence to the first person in the line and he or she then whispers it to the next in line and so on until the sentence is carried all the way down the line to the last player.  This last person will then repeat the sentence out loud.  Often it has changed considerably as it was repeated down the line.  It seems that it is quite common to have difficulty repeating with precision something you have heard.

Nor is it only children that have difficulty getting their facts straight.  Police who interview witnesses to a crime will often run into the same sort of thing.  Interview three witnesses to the exact same crime and it is not unusual for you to be told three different stories.  This doesn’t mean that the witnesses are lieing it just means that they either didn’t observe the events very carefully or that, for whatever reason, their memories are not able to hold onto a number of the details.

Why does this happen?  Why do people jump to conclusions and get their facts wrong?  My experience tells me these seem to be widespread traits so I believe it may be human nature.  As far as quick decision making goes I think that perhaps evolution has rewarded people who are quick thinkers and “weeded out” those who take too long to come to a judgment.  After all, if our ancestors in the ancient past took too long to determine whether that charging rhino was a threat or not they wouldn’t survive too long would they?  In dangerous situations you can’t afford the luxury of making meticulous observations and weighing all the evidence before coming to a decision, you need to react swiftly to avoid death or injury.

With regards to the failure to remember accurately perhaps nature just didn’t give us enough space in our minds to remember a lot of details.  Since we only have so much memory maybe we subconsciously decide what details are important and which aren’t and then forget the “unimportant” ones to make room for those that matter.  Later on, when we try to remember these “unimportant” details we either draw a blank or, since we can’t remember the truth, come up with guesses, creating mental pictures of what we think might’ve occurred that are actually incorrect.  Sometimes we may even forget that these false memories were guesses because they seem so real.

These are just hypotheses of mine.  I have no hard evidence to back them up but they do seem to fit with my observations of the world.

So, if humans are prone to making snap judgments and misremembering facts how do we ensure that we come to correct decisions?  I believe that our best defence is to be aware of the frailties of human decision making and memory.  If we are aware of our weaknesses we can attempt to compensate for them.

Here are some rules I try to follow:

1. Beware your first impression.  Everybody has first impressions but they aren’t always right.  When you first see or hear something examine what your initial reaction is.  Are you starting to come to an opinion already?  If so, be willing to re-examine it.
2. Gather information from different sources.  Speak to different people, read different sources of information and compare them.  The more information you have the better as it reduces the chance of getting inaccurate data.  If many people or sources are telling you the same thing there is a greater chance that it is correct although one needs to be sure that people are not just repeating what they heard from someone else.  The sources need to be original.
3. Evaluate the sources of information.  If a person tells you an account of something that happened ask yourself whether this person is honest or not and whether he or she is someone who is good at observing and remembering details.
4. Don’t let your emotions rule you.  Sometimes you will feel inclined to believe a certain person because you like him or her or to disbelieve them because you dislike them.  Or you may have an emotional attachment to a certain answer to a question or decision.  Fight these tendencies.  Just because you like someone or something doesn’t make them or it right and, conversely, just because you dislike someone or something doesn’t make them or it wrong.