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Don't Cry for me, Scozzafava
Today, in a big boost to conservatism, Dede Scozzafava, the moderate Republican candidate for the NY-23 special election left when current Secretary of the Army John McHugh (R) was appointed to his current position by President Obama, vacating his upstate New York House seat. McHugh's confirmation was stalled in the Senate by the Senators from Kansas, but the field of candidates fleshed out very quickly, even without an election date scheduled. Republicans nominated Scozzafava, a longtime state Assemblywoman and former mayor of Governeur. Democrats nominated Bill Owens, a businessman, apparently in the same strategy as when they nominated Democratic businessman Scott Murphy against state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco, and won that seat in the NY-20, vacated by appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. However, back to the Republican predicament, when Scozzafava, a moderate who supports gay marriage and some abortion rights, was nominated, the District's Conservative Party nominated accountant Doug Hoffman in protest to Dede's candidacy. It appeared earlier this month that her name recognition in the District may allow her to slide into the seat even with two strong challengers, but with GOP heavyweights such as Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Texas Governor Rick Perry, and former New York Governor George Pataki (more on him later) endorsing Hoffman, his campaign surged, creating the following race:
Now that we've got all that out of the way, what does Scozzafava's exit from this race mean? For one, people who supported her such as the NRCC and Newt Gingrich are immediately switching to Hoffman, allowing him to regain some semblance of party unity in a district of which some parts have been under a Republican since pre-Civil War days. More importantly, however, it allows Hoffman to have Party money behind him. Of course, we'll have to see what new polls come out to fully see how this race will end (in three days!), but my prediction is that unless Scozzafava endorses Owens, or unless video of Hoffman in some sort of costume surfaces, Hoffman will pick up those Republican Dede loyalists and will surge ahead to victory.
Now, the 2009 referendum depends on New Jersey. Allow me to explain this. With full knowing that Bob McDonnell will win in Virginia, and with near probability that Doug Hoffman will win in NY23, the referendum on Obama's presidency so far depends on if former US Attorney Chris Christie (R) can win in New Jersey against hated governor John Corzine. Corzine's a big Wall Street guy, so he has money to throw into this race like nobody's business. He's run an increasingly negative campaign, and it's worked. Although his approval rating are more upside down than Jerimiah Wright, he's managed to convince voters that Christie is just as bad, and Christie's inability, or rather unwillingness, to fight back, has prompted this race to go from a Republican sure thing to something that everyone's just a little confused about. In my last post, I endorsed Independent Chris Daggett, but after reading deeper into his record, I'm not sure he's what's right for the state, or for the national interest. I officially switch my endorsement to Chris Christie in the interest of national Republican interests. If Republicans or conservatives can win all three of these races, it may just be enough to turn the tide on things like healthcare reform and liberal domestic and foreign agenda.
This race, NY-23, also has serious overtones for the 2012 presidential race. Possible contenders such as Palin, Pawlenty, and Santorum endorsed Hoffman immediately, and should he win they get serious points among conservatives for standing up to the "liberal Republican" Scozzafava earlier than when it was trendy. On the other head of the coin, Newt Gingrich supported Scozzafava in order to attempt to regain party unity behind the one actually running under the party banner. Within an hour of her dropping out, he endorsed Hoffman glowingly. Whether this ultimately matters is yet to be seen. The real 2012 winners here, however, are those who stayed out of this state's politics completely and can't be seen as opportunists (see: Romney, Mitt, and Huckabee, Mike). Depending on the mood of the country in 2 years, this endorsement or non-endorsement could very well play in to the GOP primary that's likely to be pretty crowded.
Pataki, you thought we'd forgotten about you! Not a chance, buddy. When former NY Governor George Pataki jumped on the Hoffman wagon, it created serious buzz, at least in this analyst's mind, that he may yet run for the Senate against appointed Senator Gillibrand. Polls show that he could very well win, so the AYC would officially like to invite Governor Pataki, please go ahead and jump in the race. A New York Senator with an R after his name would send a pretty strong message to liberals in Congress.
Well, that's what I've got for today, please keep reading at www.thoughts.com/AYC!
Posted by AYC on 2009-10-31 14:58:05 | Rating: | Views: 5
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